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How accurate is it?

A prediction you can't check is a marketing claim. So here is the model's predicted muzzle velocity next to published reference data for every load in our corpus — 910 loads across 41 cartridges and 83 powders — including the rows where it does worst.

How to read this honestly

Most of these loads are the same data the model was fitted to. Quoting the error on your own training data is the oldest trick in the book, so the numbers are split:

  • In-sample — the powder was fitted, and these are the rows it was fitted to. Flattering by construction. Treat it as a sanity check that the fit converged, nothing more.
  • Out-of-sample — the powder was never fitted (it ships at Estimated grade, placed only from the burn-rate chart). The model has never seen these rows, so this is a genuine test.
SliceLoadsMedian errorMean error90th pctWorst
Out-of-samplenever fitted — the real test 2155.9%7.9%17.4%33.5%
In-sample fitted to these rows 6952.3%2.9%5.9%32%
Rifle cartridges4682.1%2.8%5.4%22.4%
Handgun cartridges4423.9%5.5%12.2%33.5%
All loads9102.8%4.1%9.2%33.5%

The out-of-sample result is the one that matters, and it is also the one that justifies the grades: powders the model has never measured land around 7.9% out, which is precisely why an Estimated-grade prediction is shown with a wide interval instead of a confident number. Handgun cartridges are visibly weaker than rifle — small cases punish small errors — and we'd rather print that than hide it.

The loads

Two rows per cartridge: the closest and the worst the model does there. Not a highlight reel.

CartridgeBulletPowderChargePublishedPredictedDiffGrade
.22 Hornet 45 gr Lovex D063 / SW Blackout 10.8 gr 2296 fps 2285 fps -0.5% Estimated *
.22 Hornet 45 gr Lovex S040 8.8 gr 2493 fps 2083 fps -16.4% Estimated *
.22-250 Remington 55 gr Lovex D073.6 / SW Match Rifle 30.9 gr 3182 fps 3183 fps 0.0% Provisional
.22-250 Remington 55 gr Lovex S060 30.9 gr 3116 fps 3350 fps +7.5% Provisional
.222 Rem 50 gr Lovex D063 / SW Blackout 17.7 gr 3018 fps 3001 fps -0.6% Estimated *
.222 Rem 50 gr Lovex S040 15.4 gr 3018 fps 2780 fps -7.9% Estimated *
.223 Remington 55 gr Lovex D073.4 / SW AR-Plus 24.7 gr 3149 fps 3144 fps -0.2% Provisional
.223 Remington 69 gr Lovex S060 20.8 gr 2821 fps 2597 fps -7.9% Provisional
.243 Winchester 100 gr Lovex S070 / SW4350 40.9 gr 2821 fps 2809 fps -0.4% Provisional
.243 Winchester 100 gr Lovex S065 / SW Long Rifle 34 gr 2722 fps 2543 fps -6.6% Provisional
.270 Winchester 150 gr Vectan Sp 12 53.2 gr 2723 fps 2723 fps 0.0% Provisional
.270 Winchester 150 gr Lovex S070 / SW4350 52.5 gr 2624 fps 2769 fps +5.5% Provisional
.30 Carbine 110 gr Lovex D063 / SW Blackout 14.7 gr 2132 fps 1727 fps -19.0% Estimated *
.30 Carbine 110 gr Lovex S040 11.6 gr 1968 fps 1527 fps -22.4% Estimated *
.30-06 Springfield 168 gr IMR 4451 49.9 gr 2500 fps 2503 fps +0.1% Provisional
.30-06 Springfield 180 gr Lovex S060 44.8 gr 2411 fps 2579 fps +7.0% Provisional
.30-30 Winchester 150 gr Vectan Tubal 3000 32.4 gr 2215 fps 2220 fps +0.2% Provisional
.30-30 Winchester 150 gr Lovex S060 29.3 gr 2362 fps 2070 fps -12.4% Provisional
.300 AAC Blackout 147 gr Lovex D063 / SW Blackout 17 gr 1870 fps 1831 fps -2.1% Estimated *
.300 AAC Blackout 147 gr Lovex D063 / SW Blackout 19.3 gr 1969 fps 2039 fps +3.6% Estimated *
.300 Winchester Magnum 180 gr Lovex S070 / SW4350 66.4 gr 2821 fps 2816 fps -0.2% Provisional
.300 Winchester Magnum 175 gr Alliant Reloder 22 67.9 gr 2650 fps 2766 fps +4.4% Provisional
.303 British 150 gr Lovex D073.4 / SW AR-Plus 40.9 gr 2608 fps 2600 fps -0.3% Provisional
.303 British 150 gr Lovex S062 / SW Precision 45.5 gr 2788 fps 2640 fps -5.3% Provisional
.308 Winchester 168 gr Hodgdon Varget 46 gr 2731 fps 2731 fps 0.0% Provisional
.308 Winchester 130 gr Vectan Tubal 3000 45.5 gr 3084 fps 2875 fps -6.8% Provisional
.338 Lapua Magnum 215 gr Alliant Reloder 22 92.6 gr 3050 fps 3048 fps -0.1% Provisional
.338 Lapua Magnum 250 gr Lovex S070 / SW4350 77.2 gr 2460 fps 2567 fps +4.4% Provisional
.45-70 Government 378 gr Lovex S070 / SW4350 51.7 gr 1410 fps 1408 fps -0.1% Provisional
.45-70 Government 378 gr Lovex S070 / SW4350 46.3 gr 1214 fps 1286 fps +5.9% Provisional
6.5 Creedmoor 140 gr Lovex D073.6 / SW Match Rifle 35.5 gr 2575 fps 2573 fps -0.1% Provisional
6.5 Creedmoor 140 gr IMR 4451 39.9 gr 2500 fps 2613 fps +4.5% Provisional
6.5×55 Swedish 140 gr Lovex S065 / SW Long Rifle 39.4 gr 2526 fps 2526 fps 0.0% Provisional
6.5×55 Swedish 142 gr Vectan Sp 12 44.8 gr 2756 fps 2583 fps -6.3% Provisional
7.62×39mm 123 gr Lovex D063 / SW Blackout 25.5 gr 2526 fps 2468 fps -2.3% Estimated *
7.62×39mm 123 gr Lovex D063 / SW Blackout 23.1 gr 2394 fps 2272 fps -5.1% Estimated *
7.62×54mmR 180 gr Lovex S062 / SW Precision 48.6 gr 2739 fps 2738 fps 0.0% Provisional
7.62×54mmR 180 gr Lovex D073.4 / SW AR-Plus 44.8 gr 2509 fps 2722 fps +8.5% Provisional
7mm Remington Magnum 140 gr Hodgdon H4350 57.2 gr 2900 fps 2910 fps +0.4% Provisional
7mm Remington Magnum 173 gr Lovex D073.6 / SW Match Rifle 53.2 gr 2722 fps 2884 fps +6.0% Provisional
7x57 Mauser 139 gr Lovex S060 37.8 gr 2591 fps 2588 fps -0.1% Provisional
7x57 Mauser 139 gr Lovex D073.6 / SW Match Rifle 46.3 gr 2788 fps 2953 fps +5.9% Provisional
7x64 Brenneke 139 gr Lovex S070 / SW4350 58.6 gr 2952 fps 3008 fps +1.9% Provisional
7x64 Brenneke 139 gr Lovex S060 46.3 gr 2624 fps 2930 fps +11.7% Provisional
8x57 IS (8mm Mauser) 196 gr Lovex S071 54 gr 2362 fps 2353 fps -0.4% Provisional
8x57 IS (8mm Mauser) 196 gr Lovex S065 / SW Long Rifle 49.4 gr 2499 fps 2386 fps -4.5% Provisional
9.3x62 285 gr Lovex D073.6 / SW Match Rifle 54 gr 2247 fps 2246 fps 0.0% Provisional
9.3x62 285 gr Lovex D073.4 / SW AR-Plus 53.2 gr 2224 fps 2319 fps +4.3% Provisional
.32 ACP 73 gr Lovex D032 / SW Clean Shot 3 gr 1017 fps 1018 fps +0.1% Provisional
.32 ACP 71 gr Alliant Unique 2 gr 600 fps 690 fps +14.9% Provisional
.357 Magnum 140 gr Vectan Sp 3 17.7 gr 1410 fps 1406 fps -0.3% Provisional
.357 Magnum 158 gr Lovex D037.2 / SW Heavy Pistol 10.8 gr 1279 fps 1018 fps -20.4% Estimated *
.357 SIG 125 gr Vectan Sp 2 10 gr 1390 fps 1425 fps +2.5% Provisional
.357 SIG 140 gr Lovex D037.2 / SW Heavy Pistol 10.8 gr 1410 fps 1128 fps -20.0% Estimated *
.38 Special 148 gr Lovex S015 2.6 gr 656 fps 659 fps +0.4% Estimated *
.38 Special 148 gr Lovex D036 / SW Auto Pistol 3.5 gr 787 fps 579 fps -26.5% Estimated *
.38 Super 124 gr Vectan Sp 2 9.6 gr 1444 fps 1416 fps -2.0% Provisional
.38 Super 147 gr Vectan Sp 2 8 gr 1253 fps 1168 fps -6.8% Provisional
.380 ACP 92 gr Lovex S011 2.8 gr 918 fps 918 fps 0.0% Estimated *
.380 ACP 92 gr Lovex D032 / SW Clean Shot 3.9 gr 1050 fps 1129 fps +7.5% Provisional
.40 S&W 155 gr Accurate No. 5 8 gr 1128 fps 1126 fps -0.2% Provisional
.40 S&W 180 gr Lovex D037.2 / SW Heavy Pistol 8 gr 951 fps 772 fps -18.9% Estimated *
.41 Remington Magnum 210 gr Hodgdon HP-38 / Win 231 8.6 gr 1200 fps 1203 fps +0.2% Provisional
.41 Remington Magnum 245 gr Hodgdon Trail Boss 3.5 gr 683 fps 620 fps -9.3% Estimated *
.44 Remington Magnum 240 gr IMR 4227 22.7 gr 1300 fps 1303 fps +0.2% Provisional
.44 Remington Magnum 240 gr Lovex S040 17 gr 1181 fps 1032 fps -12.6% Estimated *
.44 S&W Special 240 gr Hodgdon HS-6 8 gr 917 fps 918 fps +0.1% Estimated *
.44 S&W Special 240 gr Hodgdon Clays 3.2 gr 669 fps 586 fps -12.4% Estimated *
.45 ACP 230 gr Alliant Bullseye 5.2 gr 800 fps 800 fps 0.0% Provisional
.45 ACP 230 gr Lovex D036 / SW Auto Pistol 6 gr 754 fps 656 fps -13.1% Estimated *
.45 Colt 200 gr Hodgdon Clays 4.6 gr 777 fps 769 fps -1.0% Estimated *
.45 Colt 250 gr Lovex D037.1 / SW Major Pistol 12.3 gr 722 fps 964 fps +33.5% Estimated *
10mm Auto 180 gr Hodgdon Longshot 8.2 gr 1205 fps 1205 fps 0.0% Provisional
10mm Auto 200 gr Vectan Sp 2 9.6 gr 1232 fps 1126 fps -8.6% Provisional
7.62×25mm Tokarev 85 gr Lovex D036 / SW Auto Pistol 8.6 gr 1574 fps 1583 fps +0.6% Estimated *
7.62×25mm Tokarev 85 gr Lovex D037.1 / SW Major Pistol 9.3 gr 1410 fps 1595 fps +13.1% Estimated *
9mm Luger 90 gr Vectan Ba 9.5 5.3 gr 1380 fps 1383 fps +0.2% Provisional
9mm Luger 147 gr Accurate No. 5 4.6 gr 938 fps 826 fps -11.9% Provisional
9×18mm Makarov 95 gr Lovex D037.1 / SW Major Pistol 7.4 gr 1181 fps 1184 fps +0.2% Estimated *
9×18mm Makarov 95 gr Lovex D036 / SW Auto Pistol 4.9 gr 1082 fps 887 fps -18.0% Estimated *
9×21mm IMI 124 gr Lovex D032 / SW Clean Shot 4.3 gr 1050 fps 1045 fps -0.5% Provisional
9×21mm IMI 124 gr Lovex D036 / SW Auto Pistol 5.7 gr 1115 fps 951 fps -14.7% Estimated *

* = out-of-sample (the model was never fitted to this powder). Published velocities are from 25 reference sources (Hodgdon, Hodgdon RDC, Hodgdon RDC (Longshot, HDY FMJ FP), Hodgdon RDC (Longshot, HDY FMJ), Hodgdon RDC (Longshot, HDY XTP), Hodgdon RDC (Longshot, NOS JHP), Hodgdon RDC (Longshot, SIE JHC), Hodgdon RDC (Longshot, SIE JHP), Hodgdon RDC (Longshot, SPR GDHP), Hodgdon RDC (Longshot, SPR JHP), Hodgdon RDC (No. 5, HDY XTP), Hodgdon RDC (No. 5, NOS JHP), Hodgdon RDC (No. 5, SIE JHP), Hornady, Lovex Reloading Guide 2019 (CIP), Nobel Sport A5 (CIP), Shooters World manual 2023, Sierra, Sierra 6th, Vihtavuori, Western, published, vectan.fr (CIP), vectan.fr (CIP; live-site only), vectan.fr (CIP; source cols conflict, lower kept)), each at that source's stated test-barrel length; the model is given the same barrel.

What this does not prove

  • It's velocity only. Pressure is far harder to verify — we have no pressure gun. Predicted pressure is always shown as a percentage of the SAAMI maximum, never as a safety verdict.
  • The out-of-sample set is small (215 loads, mostly handgun). It's the honest number we have, not a large study.
  • Your rifle isn't a test barrel. Every number here comes from published test-barrel data. Your throat, brass, primers, and powder lot will move it — which is the entire reason the app asks for your chronograph and re-grades to Calibrated once it has it.
  • Fitted ≠ correct. A tight in-sample error means the fit converged; it does not mean the physics generalizes.

These are modeled numbers next to published references, for judging the model — not load data. Never load from this page. Use current published data for your exact components and work up in your own firearm.

Generated from build 9271ccf. Regenerated on every catalog or model change, so it can't quietly go stale.